Kevin Cox' Selections And Analysis (2024)

We start out today's return to The BIg A showing a flat bet profit for this meet, after having done the same for the last Aqueduct stand.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 Striking Speed

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#3 MOUNT TRAVERS has been camera shy for nearly two full calendars, but 8 year old still has a penchant for earning some checks, and totes the lightest impost in this, his 55th call to the post. Slight edge in an opener with no first draft eliminations. #5 FIRST DEPUTY ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) didn't appear to show a heck of a lot in his first start of the claim, but you can feel free to upgrade that number by approximately 10.7%, as he is that much better on a fast track then one with moisture in it. Ridgling has done his best work in Ozone Park, and can make amends. #4 RIBBONS AND MEDALS has been freshened up since last seen, and although 5/2 appears a bit short on this one, we'll include because of the early zip. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 STRIKING SPEED fills the bill, as Dutrow is oh for 17 with dirt stock off breaks of 46 to 50 days

#10 LIL BREEZZY gets her working papers this afternoon, and aside from drawing well, gal totes a hefty Tomlinson figure of 389 for today's distance. This one is a half to a present day 4 for 13 dirt runner who won down in Texas last week & from a DRF Formulator point of view, 'Miah is on a 5-8 run with first time starting fillies on this circuit and at this level, who are NOT receiving Lasix ( 13 to 1 or less ). The winners returned $14, $10, $8, $3, and $4, and we'll make this one a tepid selection. #1 DOUBLE CAPPUCINO is another one beginning her working life today, and does such with a crisp gate move showing from last Friday. 2YO went for nearly six times the $50,000 stud fee at auction, and could be any kind. #5 BOSSY DISH has a nicely tucked away workout from May 3rd, and could spice things up beneath.

#9 COPERNICUS didn't show a whole heck of a lot when starting things out down in Hallandale Beach three months ago, but had some trouble at the onset that day, and now has blinkers added in hopes of giving this one a bit more early zip to stay out of trouble. Eligible to improve given the outfit. #3 DAKOTA COUNTRY moved forward in a big way when going over the blades for the first time, closing out the superfecta at 9-1 right here, and the lone returnee from that day was a snappy winner for Sackatoga Stables on closing day at Saratoga last week, while posting a solid Figaro in the process. #1 KORU was a bit awkward in the most recent, but still completed the Exacta when facing similar that afternoon. Draws the inside, and can sit a decent trip. OFF TURF: 9-4-1-11-10

#5 MAURITIUS has hit the board in all five starts when going over firm ground, and that includes a solid showing at 6-1 down in the bayou. Deserving favorite, but by no means a cinch in a heat that we don't have the best of reads on. #9 KING FREUD has improved over each and every turf try, so right off the bat who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. We'll nibble at 8-1 to find out. #8 NOBLE HUNTSMAN showed a bit of improvement the only time he had blinkers added, and is as good as any for the show dough. OFF TURF: 12(AE)-1-2-13(AE)-14(MTO)

#4 BEING BETTY didn't show much in the return engagement, but likely needed that after the lengthy sabbatical. Barn is without a loss this meet, and they've done better with this pilot, then without. Mild choice. #5 SOLO SHOT has outran her parimutual offering quite nicely in both sod starts to date, and gets a big time upgrade in the irons today. #7 WAR TERMINATRIX is a maiden facing winners here, but you can sometimes get inflated value on runners is like that, and we see that she was vastly improved when going over the green stuff for the first time. OFF TURF: 8-6-3-5-4

#9 HE HAS IT ALL took a big leap forward in his second start over a glib surface, when finishing a well clear runner up in a near identical placement. There's a solid trainer stat in play with this on, as barn is a whopping 7 of 9 w/ mdspwt sand stock ( getting "The Big L" ) who were 1-2-3 27-43 days in the past, and the ROI for that study is nearly $7. Threat to go all the way here. #3 BOOM BOOM THUNDER just may be the only threat to the above, given the solid Tommy for today's second start on a track labeled FST. #8 AHVEE'S MISSION has put together quite a decent worktab for today's overture, and we like the confidence shown shipping this one down from Finger Lakes when they were obviously some easier opportunities up there. NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#7 KANNON FIRE only bested half the field when returning off a lengthy break, but likely needed that effort, and lightly raised five yr. old could move forward today. with that under her girthstrap. #6 SILENT MELODY has been pretty consistent thus far, and by no means disgraced herself when facing winners for the first time last month. That's never an easy spot, and we'll toss her into the mix today. #3 LA VITA SOPHIA rounds out the top three. OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-2

#12 BUNNY HONEY has undergone a positive trainer switch for her local debut, and from a limited sampling, Papa Engelhart is 2 for 5 with turf routers or absences of less than 52 days, beneath the 6-1 watermark. Meek selection. #4 MISS CITY GIRL didn't do much to get the heart thumping when taking her first afternoon trek to the front side back in November, but has been given ample time to fill out and sort things out since then, and returns with Flavor Flav in the irons, as well as now getting the miracle drug. #9 LAURANA encountered some trouble in the 2024 bow, but secures Joel for today's second off the bench deal, and we wouldn't be shocked to see some improvement. OFF TURF: 3-1-12-15(MTO)-7

Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 41-148 ( $297 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-5 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 59-148 ( 39.9% )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7684-20491( 37.5% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4195-20955 ( $35,442.60 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7827-21077( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 1:34 P.M. Thursday )

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#2 SORORITY PRANK appears to have gotten his confidence back after being dropped in for a tag back in March. Gelding placed that day, and then closed out the triple in both starts afterwards after being hiked up to this level by the new connections. Makes all kinds of sense, and should be no worse than third for all of you show grinders out there. #3 TINEBAR has some nice bloodlines for today's debut, totes along a hefty Tomlinson figure of 381, and is displaying a crisp bullet from up at Oklahoma 5 days ago. Could be any kind. #6 IRON MAN IRA has improved over each passing start, and most definitely should be left in the mix given the solid placings of late.

#5 DARK DEVIL showed some nice improvement in his first start to the followup, and now drops a handful of pegs while catching a glib surface for the second time. Sensible selection. #1 REMEMBER THE CHIEF has undergone a barn change since besting only one a bit over a month ago, and the first thing Carlito does is have blinkers affixed in an effort to give this one some more early speed. $10,000 auction purchase seems properly spotted entered for a tag for the first time, and deserves a chance to make amends with a switch to Franco. You can feel free to throw an upward shower alongside the speed figures of #3 GUILE. Three year old seems to be figuring it out as he goes along, and is now protected against the claim while receiving the wonder drug for the first time.

#3 NEXT ON STAGE appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and although she goes over the turf for the first time today, we see that her second best Beyer was on the poly, which often translates to the green stuff. Recognize that the only second off the layoff attempt yielded a going away wire to wire win on the main, and is a threat to do the same once again today. #6 HIGHWAY HARMONY outran her odds quite nicely when completing the triple in her initial turf route three weeks back, and surprisingly has been put up for sale today off of that effort. You'd have to think all systems are go, as this gal may end up in another barn after the race. #4 SOCA has been beset by back-to-back L/O lines after each of her outings, but scored in one of them, and has some decent pedigree for today's turf bow. OFF TURF: 8-9-4-5-3

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #3 REYNOLDS CHANNEL positively immolated baccala down in Louisville last month, and appeared to have no palpable excuse for such. The good news though, is Mott wouldn't get Johnny to ride unless he was sure the horse was eligible to rebound. Will lean this way, but try to demand a touch of value. #5 MILITARY ROAD has yet to finish off the board, and goes two turns for the second time. That last part is of some relevance, as his finest performance to date came when doing such two back. 1-2-3 player for sure. #4 TIME OUT has blinks added after an honest enough showing down in Churchill, and uncoupled barnmate with our top selection should be in the thick of things once again.

#1 VOLEUSE enters this affair off of back to back career best numeros, and the four of nine local ark stands out against her oh fer nine record otherwise. Mare is but a neck shy of shooting for five straight today, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, 15% Rudy Rod more than doubles that batting average with his locally based optional sand sprinters who scored 10 to 50 days in the rear at 7-1 or less ( $2.48 ROI ). It's good to see Romero putting up some solid numbers this year. #5 ATHENA BEACH is a win machine, as this lady has gotten her photograph taken in five of seven calls to the post. Not bad for a $1,000 bred animal, heh ? #4 JACKON'S DIXIE is another one with a penchant for picking up the lion's share, and as she won this race last time out, how could we possibly dismiss?

#9 FINAL EDITION closed with a flourish to pick up 20% of the pot in his local debut, and while we feel it could be a bit of a misnomer to assume that closing sprinters will appreciate going two turns, the family tree tells us that the transition shouldn't be too difficult. #3 KICK A BUCK ( a line used during the poker game in 'Cool Hand Luke' ) returned off a bit of a freshening to finish an even fourth versus similar type, and can move forward a bit with that comebacker under his girth strap. #4 THEN outperformed his parimutual expectations when completing the triple at 17 -1 on May 19th, and expensive auction purchase could fair even better with an alert onset. OFF TURF: 7-4-1-11(AE)-2

#5 COLLOQUIAL gets his working papers this afternoon, and right off the bat we like the fact that he went for 16X the stud fee at Keeneland last year. The work tab is honest enough, and both siblings to race have been victorious on the dirt. From a limited sampling, barn is two of four with those fitting all this exact criteria ( any age ), with the winners paying $22 & $10. #1 NUDGE is another firster with a decent family tree, and isn't facing much for today's lidlifter. #9 MY MITOLE chased throughout when finishing second in his overture, and with the 408 Tommy on display, the sky could be the limit with this one.

#11 CAPITAL GAL was smartly spotted up at Finger Lakes last time out, and ended up with a drawing away win versus slightly weaker. Barn having a nice meet thus far, and as this one has historically been a touch better on the green stuff than the brown, we can see a repeat as being well within reach. #10 MARCO T has yet to miss the board on firm ground, and who are we to rock that boat ? #8 QUICK POWER NAP completed the triple the only time she was in a second off the layoff try on the verde, and could be coming late with any pace to cut into. OFF TURF: 2-5-1-7-13(MTO)

#1 BELOUNI (FR) has partaken in the Exacta in 7 of 11 career starts, and draws snugly after the recent placing. Slimmist of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #2 RUSE takes the obligatory hike in class after besting A1X foes right here on the 18th of May, and today's helmsman has some solid familiarity with this one. #8 PAROS scored by a country mile in his one second off the bench engagement, and has won in one of his last two turf events, with the blemish having come just before a lengthy layoff. OFF TURF: 8-1-1A(AE)-3-11(AE)

#2 BIG POND disappointed us a bit when finishing a non threatening second in the Vagrancy last out, but she does show a "Z" pattern from that afternoon, as she lost two and a half lengths from the quarter to the half before getting back more than six from that mark to the line. From a trainer stat point of view, Mott is a saucy 7:4-1-1-1 with Queens based graded dirt stock not getting Lasix who hit the board less than 50 days ago at 10-1 or less. The return on investment for that study is $3.48, and there is a subcategory of two for two when Junior is a board. One more chance. #1 APPLE PICKER has the sort of declining mark that we've grown to love over the years, and owns the type of running style that we like for seven furlongs. Will need to find a seam late. #8 SHIDABHUTI closed out the triple the only time she was in a third off the bench deal, and note that her finest work has come @ today's trip.

#9 LATEST EDITION returned off an elongated sabbatical to make every call a winning one up in Canandaigua County a week and a half ago, and that could set this lightly raced 5 year old up nicely for today's return to the gramma. Interesting to see Johnny V. stick around until Race 11 for this one. #2 FANCY PANTS JULIANA gave her backers a little bit of a thrill when finishing second at 22 to 1 two fortnights back, and as she has yet to finish out of the superfecta on the lawn, we'd be remiss in excluding. #6 KAN'T CALL IT went all the way in her first try on the turf, and while a bounce is always possible with that win off a hibernation, we'd be silly to leave out, given the connections. OFF TURF:2-4-6-8-10

Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 41-148 ( $297 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-5 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 59-148 ( 39.9% )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7684-20491( 37.5% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4195-20955 ( $35,442.60 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7827-21077( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout